Have home prices hit bottom?

By Michael Braga

Published: Sunday, March 28, 2010 at 1:00 a.m.

The long drop may be over.

The great home price decline that began on the Gulf Coast more than four years ago finally shows signs of ending.

In the Sarasota-Bradenton market, the median price for single-family homes hit a low of $144,000 in February 2009. Since then, it has bounced around, creeping as high as $167,400.

Some skeptics warn that more bad news lurks, thanks to an expected flood of foreclosures and a paucity of bank lending.

But a growing number of market watchers see signs the price decline has ended.

• The number of for-sale properties continues to push toward a more healthy level. In the Sarasota market, there was a 10.6-month inventory last month -- the amount of time it would take to sell every home on the market at the current rate of sales -- down from 11.5 months in January. Six months is considered equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

• The lower end of the market -- homes selling for $200,000 or less -- has stabilized. Thanks to strong investor demand, there have been bidding wars for homes in that range. For the 12 months ended Jan. 31, the median price for low-end homes in Sarasota has risen no higher than $110,000 and fallen no lower than $99,000.

• The top of the market -- homes that sell for $500,000 and above -- may still face turmoil. More people than realized bought luxury homes they could not afford, says Jack McCabe, the real estate consultant who correctly called the top of the market in 2005. Those houses will be sold at deep discounts during the next two years, he predicts.

Still, all those bargains at the high end will help raise median prices.

"The sheer fact that more transactions will take place in the upper range will have the net effect of dragging up the median," McCabe said.

At low end: stability

Jeff Twigg, who spends his days driving the region checking out properties for sale through courthouse auctions, says there is considerably more competition among bidders these days -- so much so that he and his partner are passing on opportunities because they think competitors are bidding too much.

Eric Greenstein, an agent at Tarpon Coast Realty, says similar activity is affecting the short sale market, made up of sellers who owe more to banks than their properties are now worth.

"Six months ago, the market was still dipping," Greenstein said. "When a buyer made an offer on a property and the bank would come back six months later to accept, the end user would say, 'Forget it,' because values would be lower at that point. Now the banks are countering with higher offers and buyers are accepting because the price pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction."

Others market watchers, including Matt Augustyniak, the president of Manatee County's Horizon Realty, say a new wave of foreclosures may be avoided because of new federal rules governing short sales and the expansion of the Obama administration's mortgage-aid plan announced last week.

"The new rules will force banks to respond to short sale offers within 10 days," Augustyniak said. "They don't have to accept, but they have to come back with a number they would be willing to accept, and that might speed short sales and eliminate some foreclosures."

Because bank foreclosures usually sell for 20 percent less than short sales, overall prices will trend higher if the pace of short sales accelerates, he said.

At high end: uncertainty

Sales at the upper end of the market haven't yet picked up. Sales in the $500,000-and-above range actually fell by 30 percent in Sarasota and Manatee counties during the 12 months ended Jan. 31, compared with the same period a year earlier, statistics generated by TrendGraphix show.

It is also taking longer for luxury homes to sell -- 194 days on average in Sarasota County during the 12 months ended Jan. 31 compared with 171 days during the same period a year earlier. In Manatee County, it took 205 days to sell a home in the $500,000 and above range, compared with 156 days the year before.

"Days on the market only increase if properties are listed too high," said Hannerle Moore, a luxury agent with Michael Saunders & Co. "Many high-end sellers are still hoping for a return to 2005 prices and that's many, many, many years away. As I tell my clients, you can either be like the lady across the street who has had her house on the market for 936 days or you can price your property to sell."

For McCabe's theory about the median price to play out, more luxury homes must come to market during the next two years at much lower prices, and buyers have to snap them up with the same gusto being displayed at the low end.

National statistics show that adjustable-rate jumbo mortgages that high-end buyers obtained during the boom years from 2004 through 2007 are starting to reset, which should lead to more foreclosures, said Gordon Hester, who runs a high-end mortgage brokerage on Siesta Key.

"Banks are going to have more of these problems. They are bigger problems and they will want to get out of them as soon as they can," Hester said. "That will mean a huge fall in prices."

That has already happened in a small way in Sarasota County, court records show. Eleven of 129 properties that sold for more than $1 million during the 12 months ended Feb. 28 were foreclosure sales of unimproved homes. During the same period a year earlier, just one of the 151 sales was a foreclosure.

Prices of the 11 unimproved homes that were seized and sold by banks were 27 percent lower than the owners originally paid. The previous 12 months, high-end foreclosed homes sold for only 13 percent less than the owners originally paid.

The big question among market watchers is whether there is enough demand for high-end properties, even at greatly reduced prices.

"Those homes will be sold at a range where credit is still tight and there would have to be a lot of cash buyers, and I'm not sure that will be the case," said Sean Snaith, a University of Central Florida economist.

"It is not as if we haven't had foreclosures at the high end yet. That end has had foreclosures as well and we haven't seen the median go up."

Northern buyers return?

Add in the fact that it is still difficult for home buyers to get bank loans, and you have a recipe for a weak market heavily dependent on cash buyers.

But McCabe -- who predicts that prices will gradually move higher for two years before rising at a more normal 4 percent to 6 percent a year -- thinks there is plenty of pent-up demand.

Northern buyers who were priced out of the market during the boom have been waiting to buy ever since, he said.

When prices drop by 50 percent or more, those buyers will act quickly.

"They will see incredible opportunities toward the end of the year to pick up $2 million properties for under $1 million," he said.

Cracked Houses: What the Boom Built

By M.P. McQueen THE WALL STREET JOURNAL JULY 8, 2009

Robert and Kay Lynn lay in bed shortly after closing on their new home in the Blue Oaks subdivision in Rancho Murieta, Calif., abutting an 18-hole golf course. They were listening to the “pop, pop, pop” of what they thought were acorns falling onto the roof.

The Lynns soon realized those were not acorns dropping on the roof.

“Little did we know it was the house cracking,” says Mrs. Lynn, 67 years old. Mr. Lynn, 68, says they bought the property in 2002 for $357,000 as a weekend home and an investment. The stucco house was moving and shifting, with part of it subtly pitching toward the golf course, resulting in cracks and fissures in the walls, ceiling and floors, the couple says.

Many of their neighbors say they had similar problems. In the Sacramento Valley subdivision of about 250 houses, more than half the residents have reported some type of flaw. The Lynns and dozens of their neighbors last year filed construction-defect lawsuits against the builders, and the lead case is expected to go to trial next week. They are seeking enough money to permanently repair the houses, a figure expected to total millions of dollars.

A spokeswoman for the builders, Reynen & Bardis Development LLC, said they would have no comment pending litigation, but a response the company’s attorneys filed with California Superior Court said time limits for some of the plaintiffs’ claims had run out.

Whatever the outcome of the case, hundreds of thousands of people from

California to Georgia say their almost-new homes need costly repairs because of construction defects. The furious pace of home building from the late 1990s through the first half of the 2000s contributed to a surge in defects, experts say. It caused shortages of both skilled construction workers and quality materials. Many municipalities also fell behind inspecting and certifying new homes.

At the height of the boom in 2005, more than two million houses were built in the U.S., according to the National Association of Home Builders, a trade group. Criterium Engineers, a national building-inspection firm, estimates that 17% of newly constructed houses built in 2006 had at least two significant defects, up from 15% in 2003.

Residential construction-defect claims filed with insurance companies in the current housing slump have been receding, “but the ones that are being filed are pretty severe in terms of the total damage alleged,” says Paul Amirata, vice president of claims for Axa Insurance Co. in New York, a unit of AXA SA.

James Wadhams, a Nevada lobbyist who represents builders and insurers, says homeowners are filing lawsuits mainly because home inspectors and attorneys are “prospecting” in new subdivisions. Like California, Texas and Florida, Nevada experienced a surge in construction-defect claims in recent years.

Because of tumbling real-estate values, those stuck with faulty houses say repairs often cost more than the homes are now worth. Many say they can’t refinance their mortgages or sell, and they have no equity to leverage for repairs.

Defects are also a concern for those shopping for a home. Owners generally are required to disclose housing defects to potential buyers. Buyers of new homes should scrutinize purchase and warranty contracts with a real-estate attorney, with special attention to arbitration clauses and liability releases.

One of the best defenses against buying a defective house is a thorough inspection by a state-licensed building-inspection engineer, experts say.

Charlene Croal, 34, a consultant, says it would cost $228,000 to fix her nearly nine-year-old house in North Branch, Minn., though the house would be valued at only $190,000 today if it were in good condition. Its interior is riddled with mold because of water seepage, partly caused by a faulty roof and poorly installed windows, she says. She and her husband relocated their family of seven because of health problems linked to the mold, says Ms. Croal, who did not name the builder.


Owners of defective properties say they’re finding it even harder to get repairs now because of rising builder bankruptcies. Some builders, especially smaller ones, also carried inadequate liability insurance, construction experts say. Other homeowners say they are hamstrung by mandatory binding arbitration clauses in purchase contracts and new-home warranties, as well as “right to cure” laws, which require homeowners to notify builders and give them a chance to remedy a defect before the homeowners can file a lawsuit. More than 30 states have some type of right-to-cure legislation, according to the home-builders group.

The NAHB says it “strongly supports” the option of using “alternative dispute resolution including mandatory, binding arbitration in consumer contracts,” saying litigation is an inefficient means to resolve construction-defect disputes.

In Rancho Murieta, residents say they just want to save their homes. It turned out that much of Blue Oaks Estates was built on clay soil that expands in the rainy season and contracts in the scorching summers, the builder, Reynen & Bardis, acknowledges. This is damaging the homes’ foundations and subtly twisting the frames, causing homes to slowly pull apart—as evidenced by cracking floors, walls and ceilings, separating gutters, and jammed windows and doors.

At first Reynen & Bardis made numerous attempts to address the problems, repurchasing about 50 houses, and installing new drainage systems and foundation underpinnings on scores of others, the company says. But it stopped making repairs on houses in the subdivision in November 2007, saying it could no longer afford them.

By law in California and many other states, builders are on the hook for certain new home defects for up to 10 years, depending on the circumstances and state laws.

In April 2008, John D. Reynen, co-owner of the firm, filed for personal bankruptcy protection, saying he owed creditors nearly $1 billion. Months later, his partner, Christo Bardis, also filed for personal bankruptcy. The partners had personally guaranteed hundreds of millions in bank loans to buy thousands of acres of land for development from Bakersfield, Calif., to Reno, Nev. None of the business entities of Reynen & Bardis is bankrupt, says a spokeswoman.

Even Rancho Murieta residents whose homes are OK say they are being affected. Michael Yager, 61, a retired real-estate agent and firefighter, says his bank would not refinance his mortgage unless he paid for a $7,000 engineering study certifying the house is structurally sound. Mr. Yager’s home was built later with a different type of foundation and hasn’t had problems.

“It’s given the whole community a bad name,” he says.

Mr. Lynn, a retired bank executive, says losing money on a defective house was worse than losing retirement money in the stock market.

“The one thing that won’t get better is this house, which will always have foundation problems,” he says. “It has driven me from retirement to doing part-time work at the golf course, and I thought I was financially stable for the rest of my life.”