Have home prices hit bottom?

By Michael Braga

Published: Sunday, March 28, 2010 at 1:00 a.m.

The long drop may be over.

The great home price decline that began on the Gulf Coast more than four years ago finally shows signs of ending.

In the Sarasota-Bradenton market, the median price for single-family homes hit a low of $144,000 in February 2009. Since then, it has bounced around, creeping as high as $167,400.

Some skeptics warn that more bad news lurks, thanks to an expected flood of foreclosures and a paucity of bank lending.

But a growing number of market watchers see signs the price decline has ended.

• The number of for-sale properties continues to push toward a more healthy level. In the Sarasota market, there was a 10.6-month inventory last month -- the amount of time it would take to sell every home on the market at the current rate of sales -- down from 11.5 months in January. Six months is considered equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

• The lower end of the market -- homes selling for $200,000 or less -- has stabilized. Thanks to strong investor demand, there have been bidding wars for homes in that range. For the 12 months ended Jan. 31, the median price for low-end homes in Sarasota has risen no higher than $110,000 and fallen no lower than $99,000.

• The top of the market -- homes that sell for $500,000 and above -- may still face turmoil. More people than realized bought luxury homes they could not afford, says Jack McCabe, the real estate consultant who correctly called the top of the market in 2005. Those houses will be sold at deep discounts during the next two years, he predicts.

Still, all those bargains at the high end will help raise median prices.

"The sheer fact that more transactions will take place in the upper range will have the net effect of dragging up the median," McCabe said.

At low end: stability

Jeff Twigg, who spends his days driving the region checking out properties for sale through courthouse auctions, says there is considerably more competition among bidders these days -- so much so that he and his partner are passing on opportunities because they think competitors are bidding too much.

Eric Greenstein, an agent at Tarpon Coast Realty, says similar activity is affecting the short sale market, made up of sellers who owe more to banks than their properties are now worth.

"Six months ago, the market was still dipping," Greenstein said. "When a buyer made an offer on a property and the bank would come back six months later to accept, the end user would say, 'Forget it,' because values would be lower at that point. Now the banks are countering with higher offers and buyers are accepting because the price pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction."

Others market watchers, including Matt Augustyniak, the president of Manatee County's Horizon Realty, say a new wave of foreclosures may be avoided because of new federal rules governing short sales and the expansion of the Obama administration's mortgage-aid plan announced last week.

"The new rules will force banks to respond to short sale offers within 10 days," Augustyniak said. "They don't have to accept, but they have to come back with a number they would be willing to accept, and that might speed short sales and eliminate some foreclosures."

Because bank foreclosures usually sell for 20 percent less than short sales, overall prices will trend higher if the pace of short sales accelerates, he said.

At high end: uncertainty

Sales at the upper end of the market haven't yet picked up. Sales in the $500,000-and-above range actually fell by 30 percent in Sarasota and Manatee counties during the 12 months ended Jan. 31, compared with the same period a year earlier, statistics generated by TrendGraphix show.

It is also taking longer for luxury homes to sell -- 194 days on average in Sarasota County during the 12 months ended Jan. 31 compared with 171 days during the same period a year earlier. In Manatee County, it took 205 days to sell a home in the $500,000 and above range, compared with 156 days the year before.

"Days on the market only increase if properties are listed too high," said Hannerle Moore, a luxury agent with Michael Saunders & Co. "Many high-end sellers are still hoping for a return to 2005 prices and that's many, many, many years away. As I tell my clients, you can either be like the lady across the street who has had her house on the market for 936 days or you can price your property to sell."

For McCabe's theory about the median price to play out, more luxury homes must come to market during the next two years at much lower prices, and buyers have to snap them up with the same gusto being displayed at the low end.

National statistics show that adjustable-rate jumbo mortgages that high-end buyers obtained during the boom years from 2004 through 2007 are starting to reset, which should lead to more foreclosures, said Gordon Hester, who runs a high-end mortgage brokerage on Siesta Key.

"Banks are going to have more of these problems. They are bigger problems and they will want to get out of them as soon as they can," Hester said. "That will mean a huge fall in prices."

That has already happened in a small way in Sarasota County, court records show. Eleven of 129 properties that sold for more than $1 million during the 12 months ended Feb. 28 were foreclosure sales of unimproved homes. During the same period a year earlier, just one of the 151 sales was a foreclosure.

Prices of the 11 unimproved homes that were seized and sold by banks were 27 percent lower than the owners originally paid. The previous 12 months, high-end foreclosed homes sold for only 13 percent less than the owners originally paid.

The big question among market watchers is whether there is enough demand for high-end properties, even at greatly reduced prices.

"Those homes will be sold at a range where credit is still tight and there would have to be a lot of cash buyers, and I'm not sure that will be the case," said Sean Snaith, a University of Central Florida economist.

"It is not as if we haven't had foreclosures at the high end yet. That end has had foreclosures as well and we haven't seen the median go up."

Northern buyers return?

Add in the fact that it is still difficult for home buyers to get bank loans, and you have a recipe for a weak market heavily dependent on cash buyers.

But McCabe -- who predicts that prices will gradually move higher for two years before rising at a more normal 4 percent to 6 percent a year -- thinks there is plenty of pent-up demand.

Northern buyers who were priced out of the market during the boom have been waiting to buy ever since, he said.

When prices drop by 50 percent or more, those buyers will act quickly.

"They will see incredible opportunities toward the end of the year to pick up $2 million properties for under $1 million," he said.

When It's Ok to Walk Away From Your Home

Millions of Americans are now deeply underwater on their mortgage. If you're among them, you need to stop living in a dream world and give serious thought to walking away from the debt.

No, you shouldn't feel bad about it, and you shouldn't feel guilty. The lenders would do the same to you—in a heartbeat. You need to put yourself and your family's finances first.

How widespread is this? More than 11 million families are in "negative equity"—that is, they owe more on their home than it is worth—according to a report out this week by FirstAmerican Core Logic, a real-estate data firm. That's a quarter of all families with mortgages. And for more than five million of those borrowers, the crisis is extreme: They are more than 25% underwater—the equivalent of having a $100,000 loan on a property now worth just $75,000 or less. That's true for a fifth of mortgage holders in California, nearly a third in Florida and an incredible 50% in Nevada.

Are you in this situation? Are you still battling to pay the bills each month, even when it may make little financial sense to do so?

It's time for some tough talk.

Stop trying to chase your lost equity. That money is gone. Don't think like the gambler who blows more and more cash trying to win back his losses. That's how a lot of people turn a small loss into a big one.

And do the math. Even if you hope the real estate market is near the bottom—it's possible, but by no means certain—it may still take years to see any meaningful recovery. If you are 25% underwater, your home will have to rise by 33% just to get you back to even.

Is that likely? And over what time period? Even if home prices rose by 5% a year from here, that would still take six years. And during that time you could instead be building fresh savings elsewhere.

Bloomberg News

A real-estate agent moves a torn "Lender Foreclosure" sign outside a foreclosed home in Reno, Nev., last Monday.

If you are reluctant to give up on "your" home, realize that it isn't "yours." If you are in negative equity, it's the bank's home. You're just renting it. And right now you may be paying way above market rates. You need to be ruthless about your cash flow.

Are you worried about the legal consequences of walking away? Certainly, you should check with a lawyer before doing anything, but the consequences will probably be more limited than you think.

In "non-recourse" states, the mortgage lender may have no right to come after you for any shortfall. They may have no option but to take the home, sell it and eat the loss. According to a survey last year by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, such states include negative-equity hot spots California and Arizona. Even in "recourse" states, lenders may have limited ability to come after you. Often they'd have to jump a lot of legal hurdles, and it's just not worth it for them. They're swamped with cases anyway.

"In my experience, right now they're not really going after anyone," says Richard Nemeth, a bankruptcy attorney in Cleveland. "They just don't have the resources."

If you've taken smart steps to protect your money, you may be safer still. For example, money held in a 401(k), Individual Retirement Account or pension plan is sheltered from creditors.

Sure, a strategic foreclosure may hurt your credit score. But if you're in financial difficulties, it's probably already suffered. And your credit score is not the only thing in life that matters.

Still, when it comes to the idea of walking away from debts, many people are held back by a sense of morality. They feel it's wrong to abandon their obligations. They don't want to be a deadbeat.

Your instincts, while honorable, are leading you astray.

The economy is fundamentally amoral.

Sometimes I think middle-class Americans are the only people who haven't worked this out yet. They're operating with a gallant but completely out-of-date plan of attack—like an old-fashioned cavalry with plumed hats and shining swords charging against machine guns.

Do you think your lenders would be shy about squeezing you for an extra nickel if they thought they could get away with it?

They knew what they were doing when they wrote your loan. Many were guilty of malpractice, but they pocketed good money and they've gotten away with it. And if they thought your loan was "risk free," how come they were charging you so much more than the interest on Treasury bonds?

If you're only a small amount underwater on your mortgage, it's probably the case that you're going to be better off staying put. But if you are deeply underwater, it's a different matter.

Whether we like it or not, walking away from debts is as American as apple pie. Companies file for bankruptcy all the time, and their lenders eat the losses. Executives and investors pocketed millions from the likes of Washington Mutual, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns when the going was good. They didn't have to give back one cent of that money when the companies went into bankruptcy.

Limited liability, after all, is one of the main reasons every business from your local dry-cleaner to a major multinational gets incorporated in the first place. They're not shy about protecting themselves if things go wrong. You shouldn't be either.

For Landlords, the Numbers are Starting to Look Better

By MP McQueen

Home prices are falling, rents are tumbling, and apartment vacancies are rising. So why are thousands of small investors becoming landlords?

Because real-estate prices have fallen much faster than rents, the math of buying a rental has actually improved substantially in most parts of the country. Money invested in an apartment complex today typically generates annual returns of 7% to 8% right off the bat, up from less than 6% at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.

If your property appreciates in value or rents rise, you could end up with double-digit annualized returns when you sell it. But higher returns usually come with higher risks. If you overpay for a rental property or you buy in the wrong market at the wrong time, you can lose a lot of money.

In general, landlords should pick communities where real-estate prices and rents appear to have nearly bottomed out, and jobs are stabilizing. Some of the best deals are in places like Fort Worth, Texas, or Columbus, Ohio, where prices never went wild. Markets like Las Vegas and Phoenix, both plagued by overbuilding, and Detroit, hurt by auto-industry woes, still look dicey.

But other markets like San Francisco or Chicago can still be attractive for landlords who find the right neighborhoods. Fred Bertucci, 50 years old, has been investing in small apartment properties in the Chicago suburbs since 1990. In August, he and his business partner, Kevin Moriarty, 54, bought a six-unit apartment house out of foreclosure for $280,000. It brings in about $25,000 per year in net operating income, he says, or about a 9% yield on the dollars invested. That's up from roughly a 5% yield several years ago when prices were higher, he says.

Being a landlord now isn't easy. You need good credit and plenty of cash—as much as 50% of the purchase price—because banks are still skittish about lending. You need extra cash for handling repairs and vacancies, and you must have the patience to deal with difficult renters.

If you buy an investment property, you should expect to hold it for three to five years or more. Much of the big money from quickly flipping properties already has been made, and conditions now favor long-term owners who want an investment that will throw off income and slowly gain value over time.

"It's a great time for someone who is focused on increasing his net worth, rather than doubling his money in a short period of time," says John Burns, a real estate consultant in Irvine, Calif.

Geoffrey Koblick, 55, who has been investing in residential and commercial real estate for many years, recently scooped up two apartment buildings in Northern California. He didn't buy any properties from 2003 through 2007, when "prices were too high based on the income the properties were generating," he says.

Mr. Koblick says he and his partners paid $3.3 million in May 2009 for a 23-unit building in Berkeley that generates $199,500 in net operating income, for a 6% return. They are upgrading the property, and Mr. Koblick expects its value to increase dramatically over the next seven to 10 years, when he hopes to sell it. Since they bought the building with a 33% down payment, he projects the partners will end up with an annualized return of 15%.

Of course, things often don't go as planned in real estate. J.P. Botha, 33, bought a new one-bedroom condo in Manhattan for $775,000 in 2007. Property values were rising, and he figured he'd sell it for a profit. Instead, its value on completion fell more than 25%. So he rented it out. His first tenant bailed after five months when she lost her job. He had to make a price concession to find and keep a second tenant.

"I'm hemorrhaging over a grand a month," said Mr. Botha, who took out a 30-year mortgage to finance his investment. Still, he says he is taking the long view on his investment: "Once I pay off the loan I will have an income-generating property for the rest of my life."